Riyadh Talks: A Breakthrough or a Political Game?Ephraim Agbo’s Blog – No Spin, Just Facts

By Ephraim Agbo 

The U.S. and Russia just wrapped up high-stakes negotiations in Riyadh, claiming to work toward ending the war in Ukraine. But let’s get one thing straight—Ukraine wasn’t even at the table. This so-called "breakthrough" raises more questions than answers. Was this about peace, or just another political maneuver?

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov sat down for over four hours and came up with a vague four-point agreement. But what does it really mean?

The Four-Point Deal: More Talk Than Substance?

Rubio laid out the main points:

1. Restoring Diplomatic Ties – The U.S. and Russia will work on reopening embassies.
2. Ending the War in Ukraine – A so-called "fair and sustainable" resolution, with no real details.
3. Economic Cooperation – The U.S. is suddenly open to working with Russia, a major shift.
4. More High-Level Talks – Basically, more discussions with no guarantees of real action.

The problem? None of this involves Ukraine directly. If this deal is supposed to be about peace, why is the country at war not even in the room?

Russia’s Clear Message: No NATO Peacekeepers

Lavrov made Russia’s stance crystal clear—any NATO peacekeeping force is “completely unacceptable.” Instead, he suggested an EU-led mission.

This isn’t about keeping the peace. It’s about making sure any peacekeeping effort happens on Russia’s terms. And without NATO’s backing, any force could be weak, ineffective, or even favor Moscow’s interests.

The Bigger Game: Is the U.S. Trying to Pull Russia Away from China?

Some analysts believe Washington’s real goal isn’t just Ukraine—it’s breaking Russia’s growing ties with China. By offering diplomacy and economic incentives, the U.S. might be trying to lure Moscow away from Beijing.

Nice theory, but completely unrealistic.

"Putin wants global recognition, but there’s no real reason for Russia to turn its back on China," said Professor Angela Stent, a former U.S. intelligence official. "Their relationship has only grown stronger since the war started."

Owen Matthews, Russia editor for The Spectator, put it bluntly:

"Putin isn’t desperate for peace. His strategy is simple—pretend the war never happened and push for a return to business as usual."

Trump’s Talk vs. Reality

Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed he could end the war “in a day.” But even Rubio admitted that negotiations will be "a long and difficult process."

So, what’s really happening here?

• Is the U.S. prioritizing a fair peace, or just trying to fix relations with Moscow?
• Will Europe back a deal that could lift sanctions and benefit Russia?
• Can any real progress be made if Ukraine is left out of the talks?

At Ephraim Agbo’s Blog, we don’t sugarcoat the facts. The Riyadh talks may look like progress, but they could just as easily be another diplomatic smokescreen. Stay tuned as we keep breaking down what matters—without the spin.