By Ephraim Agbo
A phrase once echoing in political arenas is now being etched into the bureaucratic machinery of Africa’s most populous Country. In a strategic pivot, the Nigerian state is attempting to wield its most powerful tool—the public purse—as a catalyst for domestic industry. What began in May 2025 as a “Nigeria First” policy approval by the Federal Executive Council is crystallizing into a series of technical agreements that could redefine the relationship between government spending and national industrial ambition. The true measure of this shift, however, will not be found in memoranda but in the merciless details of implementation.
THE ENGINE ROOM: MOUs AS BLUEPRINTS
The operational heart of “Nigeria First” beats in two recently inked Memoranda of Understanding. The Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP), the guardian of the federal treasury, has formally partnered with the Standards Organisation of Nigeria (SON) and the National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure (NASENI).
This is not mere administrative shuffling. The BPP-SON pact aims to hardwire Nigerian Industrial Standards (NIS) into the very fabric of procurement specifications, creating a regulatory moat against substandard imports. Concurrently, the BPP-NASENI deal positions the state as an anchor customer, promising a predictable “offtake” for homegrown innovation and manufacturing. In theory, these agreements transmute procurement from a passive act of purchase into an active instrument of industrial policy. As one BPP official framed it, the goal is to stop “value leakage” and embed “domestic value addition” into every contract.
THE THEORY OF CHANGE: PROCUREMENT AS A DEMAND ENGINE
The intellectual case is robust and borrowed from the playbook of industrialized nations. Governments, as colossal consumers, can de-risk markets and nurture “infant industries” by guaranteeing initial demand. This signal attracts private investment, enables economies of scale, and accelerates technological adoption. For a nation like Nigeria, with a fragmented manufacturing base yet pockets of significant technical competence, a coordinated demand-pull could be transformative. International evidence suggests that demand-side interventions, when coupled with supply-side support, can alter corporate investment strategies more effectively than subsidies or tariffs alone. The promise is a virtuous cycle: government contracts foster local production, which creates jobs, deepens supply chains, and builds a more resilient, diversified economy.
THE PRECIPICE: PROTECTIONISM VS. PRODUCTIVITY
Yet, the shadow of history looms large. The peril of procurement preference is its degeneration into costly protectionism—a sheltered market for connected incumbents, inflating public costs and stifling competition without delivering quality or capacity. Nigeria’s foundational deficits—epileptic power, prohibitive logistics costs, and a dearth of patient capital—pose existential threats to this policy. Can local manufacturers reliably meet bulk, time-sensitive, quality-bound public contracts under these conditions?
Without binding commitments to concrete capacity-building, the MOUs risk becoming mere performance art. The policy could successfully populate shelves with “Made-in-Nigeria” labels while doing little to transform the underlying industrial ecosystem. The difference between success and failure hinges on moving from preference to enforceable performance.
A CHECKLIST FOR CREDIBILITY: BEYOND THE SIGNING CEREMONY
For “Nigeria First” to avoid the fate of past initiatives, its implementation must be ironclad, transparent, and measurable. We look out for:
- Specific, Phased Local-Content Targets: Not vague aspirations, but mandatory, rising percentages for different sectors, subject to independent audit.
- SON’s Capacity Crucible: Clear, published timelines for NIS certification and a major expansion of accredited third-party testing laboratories to prevent bottlenecks.
- Smart, Targeted Support: Conditional grants or concessional loans for winning manufacturers, tied to contract performance—not blanket, market-distorting subsidies.
- Radical Procurement Transparency: Open data portals detailing bids, awards, rationales, and delivery performance, fortified with anti-gaming clauses like performance bonds.
- The Essential Enablers: Direct linkage to solutions for power, logistics, and finance. Preference must be paired with instruments like partial credit guarantees or targeted energy subsidies to lower the real cost of production.
THE POLITICAL ECONOMY: NIGERIA’S ULTIMATE BATTLEFIELD
Procurement, in any nation, is a theater of political contest. In Nigeria, where patronage networks are deeply entrenched, a “Nigeria First” policy creates new currencies of influence. The temptation for administrators to redefine imports as “local,” split contracts for favored firms, or turn standards into barriers for competitors will be immense. The recent friction around related trade levies reveals how quickly industrial policy can collide with entrenched interests and macroeconomic pressures. Without firewalls of transparency and independent oversight, the policy could inadvertently create a new lexicon for rent-seeking.
THE PRAGMATIC PATH: FROM SLOGAN TO SCAFFOLD
The government’s next steps will be decisive. A pragmatic implementation roadmap must include:
· Phased Piloting: Launch in sectors with demonstrable existing capacity (e.g., construction materials, agro-processing) to build credibility and institutional learning.
· Performance-Linked Preference: Award advantages not based on nationality alone, but on a firm’s proven ability to deliver quality on time and at a competitive cost.
· Integrated Infrastructure Push: Coordinate “Nigeria First” with tangible upgrades in power corridors, port efficiency, and road networks. Procurement cannot succeed in an infrastructure vacuum.
· Rigorous Impact Accounting: Publish quarterly, data-driven reports on jobs created, import substitution achieved, contract unit costs, and quality outcomes. The “value for money” mandate must be proven with numbers.
CONCLUSION: THE LEVER AND THE FULCRUM
“Nigeria First” represents a profound conceptual shift: recognizing trillion-naira annual procurement not as a mere expense, but as a strategic investment in national capability. The MOUs with SON and NASENI are necessary first technical steps. Yet, procurement alone is not a silver bullet; it is a powerful lever that requires a sturdy fulcrum.
That fulcrum is an unwavering commitment to the unglamorous scaffolding of development: enforceable standards, transparent processes, targeted capacity funding, and synergistic infrastructure investment. Without this integrated scaffold, “Nigeria First” risks trading one form of dependency for another—importing finished goods for importing inflation and patronage. With it, the government’s checkbook could finally help Nigeria’s manufacturers graduate from marginal players to the central producers of their own nation’s future.
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