By Ephraim Agbo
The current head of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), President Julius Maada Bio of Sierra Leone, has urged military leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to rejoin the organisation and comply with demands to restore democratic rule. The region has seen a series of coups and shifting alliances: Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger broke away from ECOWAS in January after forming their own Alliance of Sahel States (AES). They have since developed close ties with Russia and severed relations with France. The main worry for the region is that this split undermines cooperation to tackle the growing threat from Islamist militants.
Neighbouring coastal states such as Togo, Benin, and Côte d’Ivoire are increasingly concerned about violence spilling south from the Sahel.
A Half-Century Bloc Facing Its Biggest Test
Founded in 1975, ECOWAS brought together 15 countries with a shared vision of integration — free movement for nearly 400 million people, a common market, and collective security. Over decades, the bloc mediated political disputes, deployed peacekeeping forces, and positioned itself as a stabilising force.
But in the last five years, successive coups in Mali (2020–21), Burkina Faso (2022), and Niger (2023) have upended that stability. The juntas accused ECOWAS of failing to help them defeat insurgents linked to al-Qaeda and ISIS, and of bowing to outside influence — particularly from France.
The Break: From ECOWAS to AES
- Jan 2024 – The three Sahel juntas announce their intention to leave ECOWAS, citing sanctions and “foreign interference.”
- July 2024 – They meet in Niamey to launch the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), pledging mutual defence and joint security.
- Dec 2024 – ECOWAS grants a six-month grace period to keep dialogue alive.
- 29 Jan 2025 – ECOWAS confirms the withdrawal is official; Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are no longer members.
The AES now operates as its own security bloc, complete with new institutions and passports. While ECOWAS has kept borders open for trade and movement, the political divide remains sharp.
ECOWAS’s Push for Democracy
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, ECOWAS’s chair during the crisis, has been vocal in calling for the restoration of civilian rule. He warned that “endless coups” threaten both governance and security, and argued that democracy is essential for long-term stability.
Sanctions — ECOWAS’s most powerful tool — were already in place, especially against Niger, but the juntas branded them “illegal and inhumane.” A proposed military intervention was discussed but never launched, leaving diplomacy as the bloc’s main option.
A Geopolitical Shift: Russia In, France Out
The Sahel’s military leaders have made a decisive pivot in their foreign alliances. All three AES members have expelled French troops and closed French bases. In their place, they have welcomed Russian arms deals, military training, and security advisers, including private contractors linked to the Wagner Group.
In August 2025, Moscow hosted the first joint meeting of the AES armies — a symbolic moment underscoring the new alignment. The juntas frame this as rejecting “imperialism” and reclaiming sovereignty, while Russia portrays itself as a partner willing to fight terrorism without political conditions.
Security Fallout: The Threat Moving South
The split has weakened the region’s joint fight against Islamist insurgents. Without AES cooperation, ECOWAS’s intelligence-sharing and coordinated military operations are diminished. Extremist groups are exploiting the gaps:
- Benin saw its deadliest terrorist attack in 2024–25.
- Togo and Ghana have faced armed raids along their northern borders.
- Côte d’Ivoire reports rising infiltration attempts from the Sahel.
Analysts warn that coastal states now face a “two-front” crisis: militant expansion from the north and political instability from coup contagion.
Why It Matters
This is more than a regional dispute — it’s a restructuring of West Africa’s political and security architecture. For ECOWAS, the challenge is whether it can hold together a coalition committed to both unity and democracy. For the AES, the test is whether their new alliance, backed by Russia, can deliver security without deepening the region’s fragmentation.
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