By Ephraim Agbo
Australia has chosen its moment — and its side, depending on who you ask.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says that in September, at the United Nations General Assembly, Australia will recognise Palestinian statehood.
His reason? The “humanitarian catastrophe” in Gaza and the continued expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank — settlements Australia, the UN, and most of the world consider illegal.
Foreign Minister Michelle Bernice insists Hamas will “have no future” in the recognised state, and that recognition comes with conditions for the Palestinian Authority. On paper, it’s a principled stand. In practice, it’s a gamble in a game where neither of the key players — Hamas or the current Israeli government — seems remotely interested in the prize Australia is offering: a two-state solution.
Moral Outrage Meets Political Reality
Independent MP Zali Steggall calls the decision a moral necessity:
“The withholding of food, water, and medical aid to civilians is unconscionable. Settlement expansion in the West Bank is deeply concerning.”
She’s right about one thing — the public outrage is real, and not just in Australia. But outrage doesn’t move borders or stop bombs.
Steggall also suggested trade sanctions against Israel, recalling that apartheid South Africa didn’t end without economic pressure. That’s the part the Australian government will struggle to back up. It’s one thing to condemn from the podium; it’s another to risk the political fallout of actually punishing a trading partner.
The Two-State Mirage
The Albanese government insists recognition is tied to commitments from the Palestinian Authority.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejects that authority as a viable option for governing Gaza.
So let’s be brutally honest: Who, exactly, is Australia recognising? A government in waiting? A government in exile? A government that one side won’t allow and the other side barely controls?
This isn’t the path to a two-state solution. It’s a polite diplomatic fiction — one that may allow Canberra to feel virtuous without actually changing the facts on the ground.
The West Bank — and the Bulldozers
While the cameras stay fixed on Gaza, the West Bank is undergoing one of the largest settlement expansions in decades. In May, Israel approved 22 new Jewish settlements. Some were illegal “outposts” — until they weren’t.
In Tulkarem, Palestinians driven from refugee camps returned months later to find their homes burned out. One woman walked through the ruins and said simply:
“This isn’t a house — it’s a nightmare.”
Israel says it’s fighting armed groups. Palestinians say it’s collective punishment. Both claims can be true, and that’s the problem — truth in this conflict is rarely exclusive.
In Umm al-Kheir, activist Odeh al-Wahadin was shot dead during a protest. His brother says the killing has only strengthened their resolve to hold onto the land. A few metres away, under armed guard, a bulldozer cleared ground for settlement expansion.
The Settler Answer to Diplomacy: God and Permanence
Not far from that protest site, a settler leader stood on a hilltop and told reporters:
“This is Jewish land, given by God. The Arabs know it, and they have no future here.”
He denies using violence, but admits Palestinians have been driven out — with official protection. For him, the debate is already over.
Here’s the Controversy No One Admits Out Loud
- Australia is pushing for a two-state solution at a time when both Hamas and Israel’s ruling coalition reject it.
- It’s tying recognition to the Palestinian Authority, even though Israel refuses to allow that authority into Gaza.
- It condemns settlement growth but continues trading with the government approving it.
And here’s the kicker: In September, Australia will make a moral stand in New York, in a hall filled with applause and diplomacy. But while the speeches echo, Gaza will still be under blockade. West Bank settlers will still be pouring concrete. And the only borders moving will be those pushed by bulldozers.
The real question isn’t whether Australia is right to recognise Palestine.
It’s whether anyone — in Gaza, in Tel Aviv, in Ramallah — will even notice.
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