By Ephraim Agbo
Let’s not get carried away.
Yes, in 2024, trade between Nigeria and the United States hit $13 billion. Yes, Nigeria is now America’s second-largest trading partner in Africa. And yes, U.S. Ambassador Richard Mills just called it a "thriving commercial partnership."
But here’s the real question:
Is this a win for Nigeria—or just another shiny version of the same old economic trap?
Let’s break this down, with no fluff and no filters.
📦 What Are We Actually Trading?
Here’s how the goods flow:
🇳🇬 Nigeria Exported:
- $5.7 billion in goods to the U.S.
- Mostly crude oil (60–65%)
- Also: LNG, urea (fertilizer), cocoa, sesame, rubber, ginger
- In 2025, a game-changer: jet fuel from the Dangote Refinery
🇺🇸 U.S. Exported:
- $4.2 billion in goods to Nigeria
- Refined grains, machinery, vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and tech
So, Nigeria is still exporting mostly raw materials, while importing value-added goods.
It’s like trading diamonds for drills—and then hiring someone else to use the drill.
🏭 Dangote’s Jet Fuel: A Bright Spot or a Mirage?
Yes, Dangote’s $20 billion refinery started exporting refined jet fuel to the U.S. in 2025. That’s a big deal—it means Nigeria isn’t just shipping crude anymore.
But let’s not oversell it.
It’s one refinery.
Owned by one man.
Producing one refined product.
This isn’t diversification. It’s a spotlight in a sea of shadows.
📉 Tariffs Are Back — And We’re Playing It Cool?
In April 2025, the U.S. slapped a 14% tariff on Nigerian urea exports—a major non-oil product.
Did Nigeria retaliate? Nope.
Did we renegotiate? Not really.
Dangote said he was “comfortable with the impact.” But of course he is. He has scale, margins, and options.
The real problem? Small exporters and mid-sized agro players can’t shrug off tariffs like billionaires can.
🧮 Q1 2025: America Flips the Script
Here’s what the numbers say:
| Month | U.S. Exports to Nigeria | U.S. Imports from Nigeria | Balance (U.S.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | $213.8M | $356.8M | –$143M |
| Feb | $473.6M | $286.3M | +$187M |
| Mar | $730.8M | $474.7M | +$256M |
| Apr | $483.7M | $604.2M | –$120M |
By April 2025:
- U.S. exports to Nigeria: $1.9B
- U.S. imports from Nigeria: $1.72B
- Surplus in favor of the U.S.: $180 million
That’s right—America made more off Nigeria than the other way around, reversing a long-held trend.
So, when the ambassador says “mutual prosperity,” you might want to ask: mutual for who?
📉 The Trade Surplus? Slipping Fast.
In 2023, Nigeria had a $3.1B trade surplus with the U.S.
In 2024, that dropped by 51%—to $1.5B.
So yes, we still have a surplus…
But if this trend continues, 2025 could be the year Nigeria loses its trade advantage altogether.
🧠 A Decade of Trade: Same Script, New Branding?
From 2015–2024:
- Total U.S.–Nigeria trade: ₦31 trillion (~$70B)
- Nigeria’s cumulative surplus: ₦1.6 trillion (~$3.5B)
- Top exports? Still oil and gas.
And what did we import?
- Processed food
- Cars
- Tractors
- Medicines
- Machines
- And the software to run it all
Let’s be honest—this isn’t new.
It’s colonial-era economics with modern packaging.
📈 The Good News? Non-Oil Exports Are Rising (Slowly)
In Q1 2025:
- Nigeria exported $764 million in non-oil goods to the U.S.
- Compare that with $779 million in oil exports.
That’s nearly neck-and-neck—and honestly, that’s progress.
Products include:
- Cocoa
- Ginger
- Sesame
- Tech outsourcing
But still, agriculture and digital services need scale—and Nigeria hasn’t built the infrastructure to scale them sustainably yet.
🧨 The Shift from Aid to “Investment” — or Just a Rebrand?
Ambassador Mills made it clear:
“We are transitioning from aid to investment.”
On paper, that sounds empowering. But what it actually means is:
- Less U.S. humanitarian spending
- More U.S. companies setting up shop in Nigeria
- More trade and infrastructure deals, mostly driven by American capital
Is that bad? Not necessarily.
But let’s not pretend it’s altruism.
It’s strategy. It’s about access. It’s about market dominance.
And Nigeria is playing nice—without playing smart.
🚧 What’s Holding Nigeria Back?
Let’s be blunt:
- Crude dependency
- Forex instability
- Customs bottlenecks
- Power grid chaos
- Policy flip-flops
- And yes, lack of local capacity
One Dangote refinery can’t fix that. Neither can a few cocoa containers.
Until Nigeria invests in its own industrial base, we’ll keep exporting raw hope and importing finished solutions.
✅ Final Thought: Trade Isn’t Progress. Control Is.
$13 billion sounds impressive—until you realize that:
- The U.S. is quietly gaining the upper hand
- Nigeria’s biggest export is still raw, unprocessed oil
- One foreign tariff can destabilize an entire export stream
- And most Nigerian traders are still price takers, not policy shapers
If Nigeria wants to win this game, it must:
- Build more refineries
- Push non-oil exports
- Set smart tariffs and protections
- And negotiate from strength—not from gratitude
Because at the end of the day:
Trade without power is just packaging poverty with diplomacy.
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