By Ephraim Agbo
When Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi assured foreign diplomats this week that the country’s internal unrest was “under total control,” the declaration was delivered with choreographed precision. Almost on cue, tens of thousands of pro-government demonstrators filled major streets in Tehran, Kerman, and Zahedan—rallies meticulously organized, transported, and broadcast by the state. The images were meant to settle the question of authority once and for all.
They did not.
Instead, they revealed something more consequential: calm in Iran is no longer a condition to be measured—it is a narrative to be manufactured.
Behind the spectacle of stability lies a country plunged into digital darkness by a nationwide internet blackout, where security forces fire live ammunition into crowds, hospitals are raided to seize wounded protesters, and coerced confessions are aired on state television. The contradiction is not accidental. It is the strategy.
Understanding why Tehran insists the unrest has been “calmed” requires abandoning the binary of truth versus propaganda. This is not merely a lie told loudly—it is a multi-layered survival doctrine, deployed simultaneously across information warfare, elite management, legal repression, and international deterrence. Calm, in this context, is not evidence of peace; it is an instrument used to impose it.
The Official Story vs. the Ground Reality
The state’s message is unified and unwavering. Araghchi has repeatedly framed the protests as a foreign-backed conspiracy, accusing the United States and Israel of exploiting economic grievances to justify intervention. State media reinforces this line with relentless imagery of mass pro-government rallies, branding them a “popular uprising against American-Zionist terrorism.” The framing is deliberate: Iran is not suppressing dissent—it is defending sovereignty.
Independent documentation tells a far more brutal story.
Human rights organizations report a sweeping and violent crackdown that shows no sign of abating:
- Lethal Force: Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch document the use of rifles and shotguns loaded with metal pellets against largely peaceful protesters. The Center for Human Rights in Iran reports at least 27 civilian deaths between December 28 and January 5, including six children—numbers widely believed to be undercounts.
- Mass Arbitrary Arrests: More than 2,000 people have been detained, among them teenagers as young as 14. Many face enforced disappearance, prolonged incommunicado detention, and credible risks of torture.
- Systemic Brutality: Security forces have stormed hospitals—including Imam Khomeini Hospital in Ilam—firing tear gas and shotguns to arrest wounded demonstrators and intimidate medical staff. State television has aired forced “confessions” extracted from detained minors.
- Information Blackout: Since January 8, a near-total internet shutdown has cut Iran off from the world, crippling independent reporting and making verification of abuses exceptionally difficult.
The divergence between state narrative and lived reality is not a flaw in Tehran’s strategy—it is its foundation.
Claims vs. Crackdown: A Timeline of Control
- Dec 28, 2025: Protests erupt over economic hardship and currency collapse.
- Jan 3, 2026: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei brands protesters “rioters” who must be “put in their place.” At least 11 protesters are killed the same day.
- Jan 5, 2026: The Judiciary Chief orders “no leniency” for detainees, signaling an escalated crackdown.
- Jan 8, 2026: Authorities impose a nationwide internet blackout as protests intensify.
- Jan 12, 2026: Araghchi declares the situation “under total control” amid orchestrated pro-government rallies.
The pattern is unmistakable: repression deepens first; declarations of calm follow.
Why Declare Calm Amid Chaos? Six Strategic Imperatives
1. Narrative Domination in an Information Vacuum
Declaring calm early and emphatically allows the state to seize the interpretive frame—especially during an internet blackout. With independent reporting throttled, Tehran’s version of events becomes the default narrative for diplomats, markets, and distant observers. Amnesty International notes that such shutdowns are routinely used to “hide the true extent of grave human rights violations.” Calm, once declared, becomes difficult to disprove.
2. Elite Reassurance and Institutional Cohesion
Authoritarian survival depends less on popular consent than on elite loyalty. Public assertions of control reassure commanders within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Basij, and the clerical establishment that the leadership remains dominant. The message is clear: hold the line—power is intact. This reassurance also extends to bureaucratic and economic elites whose compliance is essential to keep the state functioning.
3. Deterrence Through Projected Infallibility
To protesters, “calm” signals futility. To foreign governments contemplating sanctions or diplomatic escalation, it signals resilience. By framing unrest as defeated—and as foreign-instigated—Tehran raises the perceived cost of external pressure while justifying unlimited internal force under the banner of national security.
4. Legal and Judicial Cover for Repression
Once calm is declared, violence becomes retroactively lawful. Mass arrests, expedited trials, and even lethal force can be framed as necessary steps that worked. The judiciary’s call for “no leniency” and the broadcasting of coerced confessions are not excesses; they are the administrative machinery that converts repression into routine governance.
5. Economic Damage Control
The protests themselves were triggered by economic collapse—currency freefall, inflation, and scarcity. Declaring stability is an attempt at rhetorical market intervention: to stem capital flight, calm the rial, and reassure trading partners. It is economic triage conducted through press statements while coercion continues on the streets.
6. Simulated Popular Legitimacy
The mass rallies are not organic expressions of support; they are visual counterinsurgency. By busing participants into city centers and saturating broadcasts with images of packed squares, the state manufactures a parallel reality—one in which dissent is marginal and the regime enjoys overwhelming consent. The aim is psychological: demoralize protesters and convince the undecided that resistance is isolated and doomed.
The Machinery of Manufactured Stability
The declaration of calm is enforced through a coordinated toolkit:
- Digital Strangulation: Internet blackouts isolate protesters, disrupt coordination, and blind international scrutiny.
- Spectacular Violence: The use of live fire—especially in peripheral and minority regions—serves as a warning to the center.
- Performative Power: Pro-government rallies and high-profile arrests are staged demonstrations of reach and inevitability.
Together, they compress reality until it fits the state’s narrative.
The Limits of the Mirage
This strategy can suppress visible dissent temporarily, but it cannot resolve the grievances driving it. Each verified killing, leaked video, or survivor testimony that escapes the blackout widens the regime’s credibility gap.
International patience is thinning. The European Union is advancing toward harsher sanctions, and the UN’s top human rights official has called for an independent investigation, expressing deep alarm at the scale of violence. Domestically, repression risks radicalizing a generation that increasingly views peaceful protest as pointless and dialogue as illusory.
Conclusion: Calm as a Weapon—and a Warning
For the Islamic Republic, calm is no longer something to be achieved; it is something to be declared into existence. It is manufactured through silence, broadcast through spectacle, and enforced through force. The announcement of stability is not a description of reality but an attempt to bend reality to the will of the state.
For observers, the lesson is clear: real calm will not be announced by ministers. It will be visible in restored internet access, the release of detainees, and genuine political engagement. Until then, Iran’s calm remains what it truly is—a mirage shimmering above a landscape of repression, concealing not resolution, but a conflict still very much alive.
And in attempting to smother today’s unrest with the language of order, the regime may be laying the groundwork for an even more explosive reckoning tomorrow.
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