By Ephraim Agbo
In his inaugural address on May 29, 2023, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu declared that Nigeria would “retool its foreign policy” to actively lead the quest for regional stability and collective prosperity. Thirty-one months later, the blueprint for this retooling is clear: the “4-D Doctrine” of Democracy, Development, Demography, and Diaspora. Marketed as a cohesive strategy, this doctrine aims to leverage Nigeria's global engagements to solve domestic crises—from unemployment to insecurity.
Yet, a closer examination reveals a policy caught between strategic pragmatism and persistent peril. It is an ambitious attempt to convert diplomatic capital into tangible national gain, but one that is persistently undercut by fragile institutions, a volatile region, and the looming gap between promises and delivery.
Tinubu’s Doctrine in Action: Democracy Tested
On December 7, 2025, the "Democracy" pillar of Tinubu’s foreign policy faced its most immediate and violent test. Soldiers seized a television station in Benin Republic to announce a coup, prompting an urgent request for military assistance from Cotonou. Hours later, the ECOWAS standby force—spearheaded by Nigerian troops—was deployed to strike rebel positions and secure the capital. The swift, decisive intervention foiled the putsch and showcased a newly assertive regional bloc under Tinubu’s continued chairmanship.
This event encapsulates the ambition, adaptation, and acute pressures defining Tinubu’s foreign policy 31 months into his administration. Branded the “4-D Doctrine” (Democracy, Development, Demography, Diaspora), the strategy is a pragmatic blueprint to leverage Nigeria’s global engagements for domestic gain. Yet, as the responses to crises in Benin, Guinea-Bissau, and Nigeria’s own northwest demonstrate, the doctrine’s promise is perpetually shadowed by peril—constrained by institutional frailties, fiscal risks, and the volatile politics of security.
The 4-D Framework: A Doctrine of Transactional Diplomacy
President Tinubu’s foreign policy represents a clear shift towards explicit economic nationalism. As articulated by Foreign Minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, the 4-Ds are interconnected tools for national advancement:
- Democracy: Positions Nigeria as West Africa’s constitutional anchor.
- Development: Every state visit framed as an investment mission.
- Demography and Diaspora: Recasts Nigeria’s youth bulge and overseas community from passive features into strategic assets for soft power, remittances, and expertise.
The doctrine’s intent is straightforward: use diplomacy to unlock the capital, markets, and know-how needed to tackle unemployment and insecurity at home. The operational reality, however, is infinitely more complex.
Regional Democracy: Strategic Pivot in a Fractured Neighborhood
Tinubu’s commitment to defending constitutional order has been forged in the fire of West Africa’s “coup belt.”
- Early Setback in Niger (2023): ECOWAS’s initial posture—threats of force and harsh sanctions—backfired, straining northern Nigerian relations and exposing the bloc’s limited leverage. The subsequent rise of the junta-led Alliance of Sahelian States (AES) marked a clear diminution of Nigerian influence.
- Response to Benin Coup (Dec 2025): ECOWAS, led by Nigeria, authorized immediate military intervention. Nigerian forces, alongside contingents from Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast, and Ghana, helped loyalist troops quash the rebellion. This success demonstrated a capability-based, assertive intervention model, contrasting sharply with the empty threats over Niger.
- Case of Guinea-Bissau: ECOWAS limited its response to condemnation and suspension, offering no standby force. This dichotomy underscores the painful, case-by-case calculus Tinubu must navigate: assertive intervention is politically costly; patient diplomacy risks emboldening spoilers. Nigeria’s regional power is potent but precisely applied, not hegemonic.
Security Pragmatism: Necessary Partnerships, Political Risks
Facing a metastasizing domestic insurgency, Tinubu’s most consequential foreign policy axis has been a pragmatic deepening of security cooperation with traditional partners.
- December 2025: Tinubu confirmed Nigeria was awaiting four attack helicopters from the United States and had approached Turkey for additional assistance.
- This announcement followed U.S. “powerful and deadly” airstrikes against Islamic State-linked camps in northwest Nigeria, which Nigerian Foreign Minister Tuggar explicitly called a “joint operation” using Nigerian intelligence.
Political Risk: Public acknowledgment of foreign integration bridges capability gaps but requires careful narrative management around sovereignty and civilian casualties. Over-reliance on external partners can fuel nationalist backlash. Tactical gains must be paired with governance and local economic resilience to prevent them from being ephemeral.
Economic Diplomacy: From Pledges to a Precarious Highway
The development pillar is measured in investment announcements:
- $50 billion in investment pledges secured since Tinubu took office.
- Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway: 700-kilometer corridor pitched as transformational for trade and jobs.
- Dec 19, 2025: $1.126 billion financing closed for a key section of the highway, hailed as proof that diplomatic outreach yields bankable contracts.
Fiscal Risk: Mega-projects combine concessional loans, syndicated credit, and government guarantees, which can strain public finances if projects face delays or cost overruns. Urgency to show “delivery” collides with the need for rigorous procurement and oversight. The highway, like the doctrine itself, is a high-stakes gamble—it could become an engine for growth or a source of long-term debt and vulnerability.
The Diaspora Lever: Platform Launch and Implementation Hurdles
- Diaspora BRIDGE (D-BRIDGE) platform, July 2025: Connects Nigerian professionals abroad with domestic universities and industries.
- Strategic Value: Moves the diaspora beyond cash flows to an integrated innovation multiplier.
- Implementation Challenge: Requires credible governance, IP protection, and domestic institutions capable of absorbing expertise. The risk is treating the diaspora as a stopgap rather than a catalyst.
Institutional Deficits: The Unchanged Achilles' Heel
The most underappreciated constraint is institutional. Diplomatic wins are hollow without a professional foreign service and inter-ministerial machinery to shepherd MOUs into completed projects.
- Ambassadorial Vacancies: For most of Tinubu’s tenure, critical ambassadorial posts were vacant. A major step came in December 2025, when the Nigerian Senate confirmed 64 ambassadorial nominees. While this ends a long period of diplomatic understaffing, it is remedial, not transformative.
- Implementation Gap: The state’s capacity to track, implement, and oversee complex multi-year deals remains the doctrine’s greatest vulnerability. In a polity where legitimacy is fragile, showing that foreign engagements tangibly improve lives will determine whether the 4-D Doctrine is strategic competence or polished marketing.
The Perilous Gap: Where Doctrine Meets Reality
The doctrine's elegant logic collides with complex, unforgiving realities. The space between diplomatic announcement and tangible result is where the greatest risks reside.
1. The Sahelian Crucible and the Limits of Influence
Tinubu’s commitment to democracy faced its sternest test in Niger. ECOWAS initially responded with sanctions and the threat of force, which backfired, fueling nationalist propaganda in northern Nigeria and the Sahel.
Strategic outcomes included:
- Formation and consolidation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, formally withdrawing from ECOWAS.
- Realignment of security partnerships, with AES states expelling Western forces and turning to Russian military contractors.
- Expansion of terrorist groups like JNIM and ISWAP, blockading cities and demonstrating state-level control.
2. The Institutional Void: From MOUs to Reality
- Leadership Vacuum: Ambassadorial vacancies left senior officers as temporary charges d’affaires, weakening Nigeria’s diplomatic punch.
- Delivery Deficit: Investment pledges remain just that—pledges. Weak inter-ministerial tracking and embassy funding gaps increase risk of attrition.
3. Fiscal Tightrope of Mega-Projects
Mega-projects, like the Lagos-Calabar Highway, involve concessional loans, syndicated credit, and government guarantees, creating high fiscal exposure if projects face delays, cost overruns, or weak revenue streams. Urgency to show “delivery” must be balanced against transparent procurement and oversight.
Final Analysis: Ambition at a Crossroads
President Tinubu’s 4-D Doctrine is coherent, pragmatic, and adaptive. It correctly ties Nigeria’s global posture to domestic crises and has shown strategic learning, as seen in the pivot from Niger to Benin. Recent discrete wins include:
- Foiled Benin coup
- Major highway financing deal
- Diaspora BRIDGE launch
- Ambassadorial confirmations
Yet, doctrine is not delivery, activity is not impact. The persistent peril lies in the gap between diplomatic promise and institutional capacity. The next 12-18 months must deliver:
- Investment pledges → job-creating projects
- Security partnerships → visible local governance and community investment
- New platforms like D-BRIDGE → measurable results
Failing these, the doctrine risks becoming a reputational ledger: impressive in press releases, shallow in impact, and politically combustible. For Nigeria, the stakes are diplomatic and existential: citizens may see expansive foreign policy not as a tool for national renewal, but as a glossy alternative to hard domestic reform. This is the doctrine’s enduring peril, the constraint that will determine whether Tinubu’s strategy shapes Nigeria’s rise or merely decorates its aspirations.
No comments:
Post a Comment