By Ephraim Agbo — Analysis
From Sovereign Claim to Operational Practice
Beijing’s claim over Taiwan has never been ambiguous. What has changed is how that claim is being enforced. Over the past decade, political assertion has gradually hardened into military posture. On 29 December 2025, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) crossed another threshold, launching large-scale, multi-domain live-fire exercises that closely resemble a rehearsal for a blockade of Taiwan’s ports and airspace.
These were not symbolic flybys or routine patrols. The drills involved the PLA Navy, Air Force, Rocket Force, and ground units operating in coordination—an unmistakable signal that China is testing execution, not rhetoric.
This marks a shift from signaling intent to practicing control.
Blockade, Not Beaches: The Strategic Logic
Military analysts have long argued that any Chinese move against Taiwan would begin not with an amphibious invasion, but with isolation.
The current exercises simulate precisely that scenario:
- sealing sea lanes,
- threatening civil aviation routes,
- severing logistical and communication lifelines.
Encirclement is less risky than invasion and more coercive than diplomacy. It allows Beijing to apply pressure incrementally, testing international resolve while keeping escalation formally below the threshold of war.
A blockade starves resistance before the first shot is fired.
Taipei’s Immediate Response: The End of Strategic Ambiguity
Taiwan’s reaction was swift. Armed forces were placed on heightened alert, aircraft and naval assets deployed, and civil authorities began contingency planning for airspace disruption.
The response underscores a critical reality: drills of this scale are no longer interpreted as routine. In Taipei, they are treated as potential preludes.
Ambiguity has given way to anticipation.
The American Catalyst: An $11.1 Billion Signal
The timing of the drills is not coincidental. In mid-December 2025, the United States approved the largest arms sales package to Taiwan in history, valued at approximately $11.1 billion.
The package includes:
- HIMARS rocket systems
- ATACMS long-range strike missiles
- Self-propelled howitzers
- Loitering and surveillance drones
- Javelin and TOW anti-tank systems
- Long-term software, training, and sustainment
Washington describes the package as defensive deterrence. Beijing reads it as strategic provocation.
For China, weapons do not stabilize the status quo—they harden it.
Beijing’s Countermove: Sanctions and Signals
China’s response was immediate and multi-layered. Beijing announced sanctions on U.S. defense firms and senior executives, freezing assets and barring operations within China.
This was not mere diplomatic theater. The message was explicit:
- Arms sales will incur economic consequences
- Defense industries are fair targets
- The cost of intervention will be shared beyond governments
Military pressure is now paired with economic coercion.
Japan Enters the Equation
Japan’s role further complicates the geometry. Tokyo has publicly acknowledged that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could draw Japan into the conflict—a statement that collapses the distance between contingency planning and alliance obligation.
This effectively transforms the Taiwan Strait from a bilateral flashpoint into a regional alliance trigger.
What happens around Taiwan no longer stays around Taiwan.
Civilian Fallout: Aviation, Shipping, and Economic Shock
The drills are already rippling outward:
- Chinese Coast Guard vessels have appeared near surrounding islands
- Live-fire zones have forced airlines to reroute flights
- Shipping insurers are reassessing risk premiums
Civil aviation, in particular, cannot coexist with military ambiguity. Airlines do not gamble with airspace. Even short disruptions raise costs, delay trade, and magnify global supply chain stress.
Blockades begin as military maneuvers but end as economic weapons.
Normalizing the Crisis
Perhaps the most dangerous aspect is repetition.
Each drill resets the baseline. What was once extraordinary becomes routine. What was once escalatory becomes procedural.
This normalization lowers political resistance to future coercion and narrows diplomatic off-ramps.
The greatest risk is not war—but habituation to brinkmanship.
The Political Core: Two Futures, One Island
At the heart of the crisis lies an irreconcilable contradiction:
- Beijing views Taiwan as a breakaway province destined for reunification
- Most Taiwanese reject that future, valuing democracy, judicial independence, and civil liberties
For Taiwan’s population, reunification is not stability—it is loss of agency.
This is not merely a territorial dispute; it is a contest of political identity.
Deterrence or Drift?
U.S. arms sales strengthen Taiwan’s defenses but inflame Beijing’s suspicions. Chinese drills demonstrate power but deepen regional anxiety. Each side claims deterrence; each step reduces margin for error.
The danger is not a sudden invasion. It is a slow tightening:
- rehearsed blockades
- economic sanctions replacing diplomacy
- rhetoric that leaves no room to retreat
Taiwan now sits at the intersection of China’s determination to assert control and America’s resolve to prevent it.
The question is no longer whether the crisis is real—but whether it can still be managed.
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