By Ephraim Agbo
At a glance: In the pre-dawn hours of Sunday 7 December, a faction of the Benin armed forces seized the state broadcaster and read a proclamation dissolving the government, naming a Military Committee for Refoundation (CMR) and appointing Lieutenant-Colonel Pascal Tigri as its head. Within hours the presidency and senior military figures pushed back, saying the president was safe and loyalist forces were regaining control. Reporting remains fluid; the incident exposes deep political tensions ahead of an already fraught 2026 presidential contest.
The morning the screen went dark — timeline
-
Shortly after midnight: Armed soldiers attacked the presidential residence in Porto-Novo and elements of Camp Guézo, reported witnesses and diplomatic posts. Simultaneously, troops entered the national broadcaster in Cotonou and interrupted programming.
-
On state television: The soldiers — calling themselves the “Military Committee for Refoundation” (CMR) — read a declaration that President Patrice Talon had been “removed”, the constitution suspended, institutions dissolved and the borders closed. Lt-Col. Pascal Tigri was presented as chairman of the CMR.
-
Immediate aftermath: The broadcast signal was cut intermittently. Reports of gunfire near Porto-Novo and around Cotonou’s port and presidential districts circulated on social media and via diplomatic advisories; the French embassy warned citizens to stay indoors. Within hours the presidency said Talon was safe and that the regular army was “regaining control.”
Who are the plotters — and why now?
Lt-Col. Pascal Tigri is the public face of the CMR, but the depth of support for the group inside the military remains unclear. The language the plotters used — promising a national “refoundation” — echoes the rhetoric from recent West African juntas that have justified military intervention as a corrective to poor governance. However, early indications point to a limited faction rather than a broad, coordinated takeover: government and loyalist officers moved quickly to present the plot as isolated and containable.
This attempt must be read against Benin’s political trajectory in 2025. President Patrice Talon, a businessman turned two-term president, is due to step down after the April 2026 election; his camp has endorsed Finance Minister Romuald Wadagni as the ruling coalition’s candidate. The choice of a successor and a recent legislative move to extend presidential and parliamentary terms from five to seven years have intensified political fault lines and fuelled opposition grievances.
There is also precedent for plotting: investigations and sentences earlier in 2025 tied associates of Talon to alleged coup planning, underscoring an undercurrent of military discontent that has not been fully extinguished.
Regional context: the expanding ‘coup belt’
Benin’s crisis arrives amid a broader pattern of military takeovers across the Sahel and West Africa since 2020. The spread of coups has created both a political template and a set of cascading incentives for armed factions elsewhere: when military intervention works elsewhere, it lowers the perceived cost of attempting the same at home. Benin’s slide would amount to the first major breach of the democratic south of the Gulf of Guinea in this wave, with outsized symbolic and practical consequences.
Immediate and medium-term consequences
Security and ordinary life: Even if fighting has been limited, the psychological effect is stark — panic among residents, curfews, and embassy advisories. If clashes persist, the risk of civilian casualties, displacement and humanitarian pressure rises.
Economic impact: Benin’s economy is closely tied to the port of Cotonou, a regional logistics hub and gateway for landlocked neighbours. Interruptions at the port or prolonged instability would quickly ripple across regional supply chains, disrupt deliveries for countries that rely on Cotonou, and spook investors and lenders — raising borrowing costs and freezing contracts. The port’s centrality to Benin’s revenues and to neighbouring economies makes the country economically strategic beyond its size.
Diplomatic implications: ECOWAS and the African Union have established norms and sanctions mechanisms against unconstitutional changes of government. How swiftly and coherently regional actors, the EU, France and the United States respond will influence both the internal calculus inside Benin and the behaviour of other militaries watching the reaction.
Three scenarios for the coming days
-
Loyalist restoration (most likely): Government and loyalist forces isolate the plotters, arrest leaders and restore the constitutional order — particularly if President Talon makes a verified public appearance and the military high command presents a united front. This would preserve short-term stability but leave unresolved grievances unaddressed.
-
Prolonged stalemate or negotiated transition (dangerous): If the CMR holds territory or retains sympathisers in the security services, Benin could enter a period of parallel authorities, frozen institutions and negotiations — a scenario that risks economic collapse, targeted repression and the spread of violence.
-
Consolidation of military rule (least likely but consequential): A new military regime would require mass defections and rapid neutralisation of senior loyalists. Although currently assessed as unlikely because of loyalist mobilization, it would mark a decisive erosion of democratic norms in West Africa.
What to watch in the next 48–72 hours
- A verified sign of President Talon: a public appearance, live address, or independent confirmation of his safety.
- Statements from ECOWAS and the African Union: the form and firmness of their responses (condemnation, suspension, sanctions).
- Military movements and arrests: reports of detentions of CMR members or signs of defections.
- Economic barometers: whether the port of Cotonou, banks and foreign firms suspend operations or insurance and trade finance are pulled.
- Civil society signals: protests, strikes or local leadership responses that could broaden or dampen unrest.
Final assessment
Sunday’s events in Benin were a shock to a country long viewed as a democratic outlier in a region now defined by military intervention. Early evidence suggests the operation was led by a small but visible faction that seized the airwaves to make a political statement. The decisive factor over the next days will be whether the broader security apparatus and political class cohere behind the constitution — or whether fractures deepen and invite a longer, costlier crisis.
No comments:
Post a Comment