By Ephraim Agbo
BAMAKO, Mali — The lifeblood of a modern capital is not water, but fuel. In Bamako — a sprawling city of nearly four million — that lifeblood is being systematically cut off. A strategic fuel blockade, orchestrated by militants linked to al-Qaeda, has paralyzed the Malian capital, turning a once-bustling metropolis into a city of stranded commuters, shuttered schools, and darkened homes.
This is no random act of terror; it is a calculated economic and psychological siege. The target is Mali’s military junta, led by Colonel Assimi Goïta. The militants’ objective, according to regional analysts, is to undermine public confidence in the government and possibly trigger another coup — Mali’s third since 2020.
The Mechanics of the Blockade
The blockade began in early September 2025, when Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) — the al-Qaeda affiliate operating across the Sahel — started ambushing fuel convoys traveling from neighbouring routes into Mali.
Journalists on the ground and analysts describe a pattern of “hit-and-run” ambushes. Convoy escorts have sometimes fled when militants arrive on motorbikes armed with assault rifles, leaving tankers vulnerable to attack.
Each destroyed tanker — typically carrying between 35,000 and 50,000 liters of diesel, petrol, or kerosene — represents a devastating loss. Videos shared on social media show convoys in flames, with jihadist propaganda framing the strikes as proof that Bamako’s rulers cannot safeguard essential supplies.
A City on the Brink
The consequences are immediate and severe. Petrol prices in Bamako have more than tripled in some areas, taxis and motorcycles have vanished from the streets, and families relying on generators are plunged into darkness. Schools have been forced to close, and small businesses that depend on fuel are collapsing under the weight of the shortages.
Despite official assurances that “the situation is under control,” conditions on the ground tell another story. Bamako — heavily dependent on fuel imports — is grinding to a halt. Empty petrol stations, long queues, and mounting frustration among residents are now daily realities.
The Architects of the Crisis
JNIM, founded in 2017, is a coalition of Islamist factions led by Iyad Ag Ghali, a veteran Tuareg rebel turned jihadist leader. The group’s agenda extends beyond Mali’s borders, but its current campaign aims directly at destabilizing Goïta’s junta — a regime that broke with France and has leaned on Russian security partners.
In JNIM’s framing, any government not governed by its strict interpretation of Sharia is illegitimate — whether its external patrons are in Paris or Moscow.
Can the Junta Withstand the Pressure?
Analysts argue JNIM doesn’t need to storm the presidential palace to achieve its aims. Its success lies in demonstrating the junta’s weakness. If the army — even with external security partners — cannot keep roads safe or the lights on in Bamako, the regime’s claim to control collapses from within.
A fuel shortage may not sound like a coup trigger, but in Mali’s volatile political climate it could become exactly that. Murmurs of dissatisfaction are spreading within security ranks and among the urban poor — conditions that preceded the coups of August 2020 and May 2021.
Faith, Fear, and the Battle for Influence
Mali’s deep religious conservatism complicates the picture. With around 95% of its population Muslim, many share aspects of the social values promoted by Islamist actors — but not necessarily their violent methods.
Powerful conservative clerics have mobilized mass protests in the past against secular reforms, demonstrating the strength of religious influence in public life. Still, analysts stress that being devout does not equate to endorsing JNIM’s violent imposition of Sharia.
The militants appear to be betting on despair: by collapsing state functions, they hope to create a power vacuum where their ideology can take root.
The Siege of Bamako
For now, Bamako’s fate hangs in the balance. The junta remains defiant, and its external security partners continue to promise tactical responses. But the war that matters most is being waged without bullets — through economic attrition and psychological exhaustion.
If the junta cannot restore basic stability soon, it risks losing not just territory or resources, but the one thing it cannot afford to waste: public trust.
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