By Ephraim Agbo
The fields should be humming with life. Instead, they are silent, empty battlefields. In Nigeria’s north, the next planting season is being stolen—not by drought or pestilence, but by militants and vanishing aid. The consequence: the United Nations now warns that a staggering 35 million Nigerians could face severe hunger in 2026, a crisis of unprecedented scale fueled by a perfect storm of violence, displacement, and catastrophic funding cuts.
The Tipping Point
The statistics are more than numbers; they are a countdown to catastrophe.
· 35 Million on the Brink: The U.N. World Food Programme (WFP) projects nearly 35 million Nigerians will face severe food insecurity in 2026—the highest number ever recorded for the country.
· A Safety Net in Tatters: The WFP warns it could run out of funds for Nigeria by December 2025, forcing life-saving food and nutrition assistance for millions to be slashed.
· Famine at the Door: In the worst-hit areas of Borno state, 15,000 people could be pushed into famine-like conditions if current trends continue.
· A Global Alarm Bell: Nigeria has been placed on the FAO-WFP list of "Hunger Hotspots," signaling a rapidly closing window to avert a full-blown disaster.
· The Human Toll: Frontline groups like Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) are already reporting a sharp rise in child deaths from malnutrition, a direct consequence of aid shortfalls and food scarcity.
Pull Quote: “We are not just watching a food crisis unfold; we are watching a country’s future being starved.” — Aid Worker, Maiduguri
This is not a distant forecast. It is an emergency unfolding in real time.
The Anatomy of a Crisis: Five Threads in a Noose
This hunger crisis isn't born of a single failure, but from several interconnected collapses.
- Violence as a Farm Tool: Militant groups like ISWAP and local armed gangs have weaponized agriculture. Their raids, kidnappings, and attacks have made farms a frontline. Farmers are too terrified to tend their fields, missing critical planting and harvest seasons. The result isn't just lower yields; it's entire landscapes of abandoned farmland.
Pull Quote: “With no harvest and no hope, young men become easy targets for exploitation by armed groups.” — UN Security Brief
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The Scattering of Breadbaskets: Years of conflict have displaced millions. When communities are torn apart, the entire local food system shatters. Farmers become dependents overnight. The knowledge of the land, the livestock, the labour—all are lost, leaving a vacuum that emergency aid cannot fully fill.
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The Vanishing Lifeline: Just as needs skyrocket, the humanitarian response is facing a financial collapse. Donor fatigue and reprioritized funds have left crucial programs starved of resources. The WFP’s potential funding cliff this December means the very programs keeping millions alive—nutritional support for children, seeds for farmers—are on the chopping block.
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Markets in Chains: Even when food is available, broken supply chains and rampant inflation put it out of reach. Insecure roads deter traders, causing price spikes in urban markets while farmers in the countryside can't sell their produce. This market failure amplifies every production loss.
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The Climate Pressure: While conflict is the primary driver, climate shocks act as a threat multiplier. Erratic rains and localized floods destroy the meager safety margins that farming families once relied on, pushing strained communities from vulnerability into outright crisis.
The Human Cost: Beyond the Numbers
In a clinic in Maiduguri, the statistics take on faces—the hollow eyes of a child, the weary despair of a mother. MSF has reported hundreds of child deaths in 2025 alone in states where aid was cut.
Families are resorting to desperate measures: selling the last plow or breeding animal for a week's food, pulling children from school to beg, eating one meal a day. These coping mechanisms are a recipe for intergenerational poverty, ensuring the next generation will be even more vulnerable.
Pull Quote: “Hunger is the insurgent’s best recruiter.” — UN Security Brief
And the crisis feeds the very conflict that caused it. With no harvest and no hope, young men become easy targets for exploitation by armed groups, perpetuating a vicious cycle of violence and hunger.
The Way Forward: A Shrinking Window for Action
The path to averting the worst is clear, but it is narrowing fast. The FAO-WFP report outlines urgent, practical steps:
· Fund the Stopgap: Donors must immediately plug the WFP funding gap to keep emergency feeding and malnutrition treatment programs running.
· Protect the Planting: Where possible, negotiate "humanitarian corridors" to allow farmers safe access to their fields for planting and harvest, backed by rapid distribution of seeds and tools.
· Revive the Markets: Scale up cash transfers and electronic vouchers. This puts money in the hands of those who need it, stimulates local economies, and helps farmers buy inputs.
· Build Buffers, Not Just Band-Aids: Pair immediate relief with longer-term investments in irrigation, grain storage, and peacebuilding to resolve the land and pastoralist disputes that fuel conflict.
Conclusion: A Moral and Strategic Choice
Allowing famine to take root in Nigeria is not just a humanitarian failure; it is a strategic one. An underfunded response today guarantees deeper instability, higher recruitment for armed groups, and a far more costly recovery tomorrow.
The world is watching. The coming months will be decisive. Will donor pledges arrive in time? Will new kidnappings and offensives further strangle agriculture? Will the line outside the malnutrition clinic grow longer?
The silence of Nigeria’s fields is a warning we can no longer afford to ignore. The next harvest won't just feed the country; it will determine its future.
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