By Ephraim Agbo
When South Africa hosted the first G20 Summit on African soil this November, the moment carried more weight than the ceremonial images suggested. It was not simply a diplomatic milestone; it was a stress-test of the global trading system at a time when protectionism is rising, the world economy is splintering into blocs, and Africa is fighting to redefine its position in a system historically shaped without it.
On the sidelines of the summit, the BBC’s Nomsa Maseko sat down with World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala — arguably the most influential African voice in global economic governance today — to dissect what is at stake for the continent as the world’s major powers weaponize tariffs, supply chains, and economic alliances.
Her warning was unambiguous: the world is operating under the biggest disruption to global trade in 80 years.
The New Protectionist Reality: U.S. Tariffs and the Global Shockwaves
Dr. Okonjo-Iweala did not mince words about the U.S.-led tariff hikes that have shocked trading partners over the past two years.
“The unilateral actions taken by the United States are the biggest disruptions to global trade in 80 years.”
The numbers back her up:
- Average U.S. tariff on global imports jumped from 2.5% to around 17%, a level unseen in the post-war trading order.
- Tariff disputes now affect a combined $2–3 trillion in annual trade flows worldwide.
- Global supply chains, which were already weakened by the pandemic and geopolitical rivalry, are now being reconfigured at a pace not seen since the Cold War.
And yet, according to WTO analysis, the multilateral system is bending but not breaking.
“Despite these disruptions, 72% of global trade is still taking place on WTO terms.”
That figure used to be higher — meaning damage has been done — but the Director-General insists it could have been catastrophic.
The historical comparison is stark. In the 1930s, tit-for-tat tariffs worsened the Great Depression and fueled political extremism. Today, WTO members have avoided retaliating in the same destructive manner.
“Had they retaliated, it would have been devastating for global trade.”
This restraint, she argues, is why the world remains short of a full-blown trade meltdown.
The Post-War System Worked — But Not for Everyone
Dr. Okonjo-Iweala reminded the world that the rules-based trading system — built through the GATT in 1947 and the WTO in 1995 — played a key role in lifting 1.5 billion people out of extreme poverty and expanding global prosperity.
Yet she was equally frank that its benefits were uneven:
- East Asia industrialized rapidly under global trade rules.
- Latin America experienced mixed outcomes.
- Africa, despite its vast population and resources, captured only a tiny 3% share of global trade for decades.
“Africa could have benefited more, and that is what we are now focusing on.”
Her message to African leaders at the G20 was unmistakable: do not waste this crisis.
“We should use this moment as an opportunity to reform the global trading system — and reform the WTO.”
How Exposed Is Africa to the Tariff Wars? Less Than You Think — And That’s Complex
When asked whether U.S. tariffs are hurting Africa, her answer was analytical and layered.
The numbers:
- Only 6% of Africa’s exports go to the U.S.
- Only 4% of its imports come from the U.S.
- The projected GDP loss for the continent is less than 1% by 2030.
At first glance, this appears reassuring: Africa is not deeply entangled in U.S.-centric supply chains. But Dr. Okonjo-Iweala warns this is a double-edged sword.
Low exposure means limited immediate shock — but it also reveals the continent’s limited integration into global value chains. Africa trades little with the U.S. because it trades disproportionately in raw materials and has not diversified its industrial base.
Still, several countries are already taking hits:
- South Africa — one of the continent’s most globally integrated economies
- Eswatini
- Lesotho
- Madagascar
These nations face steep tariff surges as the U.S. applies its new trade measures unevenly across sectors and regions.
“So while the continent overall is not severely hit, certain countries are definitely affected.”
Johannesburg G20: A Turning Point or Another Missed Opportunity?
The G20 in Johannesburg was supposed to be Africa’s moment to articulate its own global trade vision. And in many ways, it delivered:
- African leaders attended in unprecedented numbers.
- The Compact with Africa was elevated as a flagship platform for attracting private capital.
- The WTO used the summit to amplify calls for trade reform.
- Global partners pledged renewed support for infrastructure and industrialization.
But the summit also unfolded under the shadow of geopolitical tension.
The partial U.S. boycott of the summit — and subsequent diplomatic fallout — reminded everyone that Africa is entering a global arena fragmented by rivalry, sanctions, and shifting alliances.
For a continent trying to build export-led growth, this is a dangerous environment.
Africa’s Strategic Imperative: Regional Integration or Irrelevance
One theme dominated Dr. Okonjo-Iweala’s interview and the summit’s policy conversations: Africa must strengthen internal trade to survive external shocks.
The logic is grounded in numbers:
- Intra-African trade currently stands at 16–18% — far below Asia’s 52% or Europe’s 70%.
- The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could boost intra-African trade by $70–100 billion annually.
- A unified African market creates economies of scale impossible for individual countries to achieve on their own.
Yet progress remains slow:
- Customs barriers persist.
- Transport corridors are underdeveloped.
- Many AfCFTA protocols are still awaiting implementation.
Without full integration, Africa will remain a passive observer — not a player — in global trade realignments.
The Global Trade System Is Being Rewritten — Africa Must Decide Whether It Is at the Table or on the Menu
Dr. Okonjo-Iweala’s intervention at the G20 was a call to action.
The multilateral system is cracked but not broken. The world is fragmenting but not yet fractured. Africa is insulated from some shocks but dangerously absent from the value chains that generate wealth.
The message to African policymakers is direct:
- Use the AfCFTA to build regional supply chains.
- Push for WTO reform that addresses structural inequalities.
- Invest in manufacturing, not just minerals.
- Avoid being pulled into great-power tariff wars without strategic benefit.
The G20 offered Africa visibility — but visibility is not power.
Power comes from coordinated policy, regional unity, and the courage to push domestic reforms that attract production, not just extractive investment.
A Brief, Human Note at the End
The BBC interview concluded with a reminder of how the world changes, sometimes violently and unexpectedly: it has been almost 45 years since John Lennon — one of the most influential musicians of all time — was shot outside his home in New York.
That tragic anniversary was mentioned almost in passing, but it echoes a timeless truth: global events, whether political or cultural, reshape our world in ways we often understand only years later.
Today’s trade upheavals — tariffs, rivalries, supply-chain disruptions — may similarly define a generation.
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