By Ephraim Agbo
On November 26, 2025, the fragile democratic process in Guinea-Bissau shattered. One day before the nation was to learn the provisional results of its November 23 general election, uniformed soldiers seized state television. A group of army officers, led by Brigadier-General Dinis N’Canha, announced they had taken “total control” of the country. They suspended the electoral process, sealed the borders, and imposed a curfew, plunging the nation into a familiar, dreaded silence.
“The target was clear: democracy itself.”
The military’s new “High Military Command for the Restoration of National Security and Public Order” was now in charge. Soon after, President Umaro Sissoco Embaló confirmed the worst, telling reporters he had been deposed and detained. Gunfire around the presidential palace and key government buildings marked the breaking point of Guinea-Bissau’s democracy—again.
The Coup: A Concise Timeline of Chaos
· The Seizure: Soldiers secured the presidential palace, the Interior Ministry, the National Electoral Commission, and media outlets.
· The Justification: Brigadier-General N’Canha accused civilian authorities of plotting to manipulate results.
· The Detentions: Election officials and government leaders were detained or placed under house arrest.
· The International Reaction: ECOWAS, the AU, and the UN expressed deep concern, with several observers trapped inside the country due to border closures.
“Borders closed, institutions dissolved — Guinea-Bissau entered its darkest political hour in years.”
The Roots of Instability: How We Got Here
Guinea-Bissau has been a crisis-in-waiting for decades. Since its independence in 1974, it has witnessed repeated coups and attempted coups, fueled by two primary pathologies:
- The Narco-State Trap: Its coastline has become a major transit route for Latin American cocaine destined for Europe.
- A Broken Civil-Military Relationship: The military sees itself as a co-governor, not a subordinate force.
President Embaló’s tenure deepened these fractures. His dissolution of parliament and reliance on rule-by-decree heightened opposition fears. The November 2025 election was already tense; the coup merely detonated the pressure.
“In Guinea-Bissau, illicit economies—not institutions—often decide who governs.”
Competing Narratives: Why Did This Happen?
Three narratives emerged almost instantly:
· The Military’s Claim: They acted to prevent electoral fraud.
· The Staged Crisis Theory: Some believe Embaló or his allies engineered the turmoil to freeze an unfavorable vote.
· Analysts’ View: A struggle within military factions, likely tied to control of drug-trade revenues.
“While the junta cites electoral fraud, the deeper motive lies in the military’s internal power struggles.”
The Regional Stakes: A Contagion of Coups
Guinea-Bissau has now joined West Africa’s expanding “coup belt,” stretching from Mali to Niger. Each successful coup weakens ECOWAS’s deterrence capability.
ECOWAS and the AU are expected to consider sanctions, suspensions, and negotiations for a transitional government. But recent history—Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger—has shown that juntas often outlast international pressure.
“The anti-coup firewall in West Africa has collapsed.”
What Comes Next: Scenarios on the Horizon
Short Term
The junta consolidates power, keeps borders closed, and frames its actions as necessary to restore order.
Medium Term
ECOWAS pushes for dialogue. The military seeks to dictate terms of any transition.
Long Term
Two likely paths:
- Prolonged Military Rule
- Conditional Civilian Return
Much will depend on unity within the armed forces, the strength of civil resistance, and the effectiveness of regional pressure.
“Whether Guinea-Bissau returns to civilian rule—or sinks deeper into military dominance—will depend on what happens in the next few months.”
Why This Matters
· For West Africa: The coup deepens regional democratic erosion.
· For Global Security: It opens more space for drug cartels and transnational crime.
· For Citizens: It means fear, economic stagnation, and the loss of democratic agency.
“For ordinary Bissau-Guineans, a stolen election is not just politics—it is a stolen future.”
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