By Ephraim Agbo
On 21 August 2025, the United Nations secretary-general António Guterres renewed an urgent call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza after Israel’s military announced it had begun the “first steps” of an operation to seize Gaza City. The announcement came as Israel ordered a large reserve mobilization and intensified warnings for mass evacuations inside the enclave — moves that have sharply escalated an already devastating, nearly two-year conflict.
Below I unpack what happened, why leaders on all sides are alarmed, how civilians and hostages factor into the calculus, and plausible scenarios for how this could play out.
The immediate facts
- Israel says its forces have begun the preliminary stages of an operation to take control of Gaza City and that troops are establishing footholds on its outskirts.
- The Israeli government has authorized the call-up of ~60,000 reservists and extended service for many others to prepare for the operation.
- The UN chief warned an assault on Gaza City would cause massive civilian casualties and urged an immediate ceasefire.
- Humanitarian agencies and several governments have expressed alarm and criticism, warning of a deepening humanitarian catastrophe.
Why Gaza City matters (strategic and human dimensions)
Gaza City is the largest urban center in the Gaza Strip and long viewed by both the Israeli military and Hamas as the conflict’s political and operational heart. For the Israeli government, securing the city is framed as degrading Hamas’s remaining command and control, dismantling tunnel networks, and (officially) creating conditions to recover hostages. For Gaza’s population — densely packed, with limited avenues to evacuate — a large-scale urban operation threatens extensive civilian casualties, damage to critical infrastructure, and mass displacement.
Human toll so far: International outlets report extremely high casualty figures in Gaza since October 2023; the humanitarian consequences of an expanded ground offensive are central to the UN’s ceasefire appeal.
The reservist call-up and what it signals
Calling up ~60,000 reservists is both logistical and political: operationally, it supplies infantry, engineering, and logistics capacity required for sustained urban operations; politically, it signals the leadership’s determination to press the offensive despite international pressure. Reservists are due to report in early September, which also creates a narrow window for mediators to seek compromise or hostage arrangements before a larger ground push.
Hostages: the wrench in every calculation
One of the war’s most acute dilemmas is the presence of hostages taken by Hamas during the October 7, 2023 attacks. Israeli public pressure to secure hostages’ release is enormous — and military planners argue that a decisive operation could create leverage for rescue or negotiation. Critics, humanitarians, and some analysts counter that an urban offensive risks placing hostages in even greater danger and could complicate negotiation channels. The tension between these two impulses — rescue vs. risk — is a core reason why mediators have been pushing for negotiated pauses.
Humanitarian impact and displacement
Reports and imagery show large movements of civilians southward inside Gaza, and authorities have prepared evacuation orders for hundreds of thousands of residents in northern and central Gaza. Humanitarian actors warn that southern Gaza’s shelters are already saturated; a fresh influx would likely overwhelm services (water, food, medical care), causing further suffering and raising the risk of disease and malnutrition. International agencies have repeatedly cautioned that intensified urban combat would precipitate a large-scale humanitarian emergency.
International and regional reaction
Global reaction has been swift and mixed: many western allies have expressed concern about civilian harm and urged restraint or pauses; international institutions and many governments have called for an immediate ceasefire. Some regional players are watching for spillover risks — cross-border attacks, refugee flows, and escalation into neighboring areas. The diplomatic pressure is significant, but so far it has not forced a reversal of the Israeli decision to expand operations.
Three plausible near-term scenarios
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Tactical, limited urban operation with negotiated pauses — Israel begins targeted operations to secure key outskirts and pockets of Gaza City while mediators press for hostage releases and temporary pauses. This is the “limited escalation with windows for diplomacy” path. (Possible but depends on battlefield events and mediator leverage.) Israel has demanded for a total hostage release.
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Sustained ground offensive → humanitarian crisis — an extended urban campaign displaces large swathes of the population and leads to widespread destruction and high civilian casualties, severely straining humanitarian response and international relations. This is the outcome most feared by the UN and aid groups.
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Rapid operational push with hostage rescue efforts — Israeli forces prioritize operations designed to recover hostages; success would dramatically reshape domestic politics in Israel, while failure or civilian losses would intensify international condemnation. This scenario carries high operational risk and moral complexity.
Which path unfolds will depend on battlefield realities, political decisions in Jerusalem, and the ability of mediators (and major powers) to influence timing and safeguards.
Legal and moral questions
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International humanitarian law requires combatants to distinguish between military targets and civilians and to take all feasible precautions to minimize civilian harm. Human rights groups argue that seizing heavily populated urban areas without adequate protections risks violating those obligations. Governments warning against the operation cite these legal and moral risks.
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Proportionality and evacuation feasibility: Evacuation orders in a densely populated Gaza with damaged infrastructure raise the question whether safe, feasible corridors and reliable humanitarian support exist to protect displaced persons during an assault. Aid groups say many of these conditions are not being met.
How to follow this as a reader
- Reservist reporting dates (early September) — whether call-ups are delayed or accelerated will shape the operation’s timing.
- Hostage negotiation signals — any public, verified steps toward phased releases or confidence-building measures will be critical.
- Humanitarian access — whether aid corridors and protection for civilians are agreed and implemented.
- International diplomatic moves — statements, sanctions, or new mediation initiatives from major powers or regional actors.
Final thoughts
This is a moment of acute danger and moral urgency. The military goal Israel has set — taking Gaza City — carries enormous operational risk and humanitarian cost. The UN’s plea for a ceasefire reflects a fear that a full-scale urban offensive will deepen an already catastrophic human toll and further complicate prospects for a political settlement. At the same time, the political and emotional pressure inside Israel to secure hostages and defeat Islamist militancy is intense. Those competing imperatives explain why diplomacy, if it’s to succeed, must operate with both speed and imagination.
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