By EphraimAgbo.
Once Africa’s economic giant, Nigeria has now slipped to the 4th largest economy on the continent, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest figures.
As of 2024/2025:
- Nigeria’s GDP (nominal) is $252 billion
- Algeria: $267 billion
- South Africa: $373 billion
- Egypt leads with $387 billion
This is not just a statistic—it’s a wake-up call. A country once hailed as Africa’s economic powerhouse has lost significant ground. The “Giant of Africa” title? Now a disputed claim.
🧮 A Quick Refresher: What Is GDP?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total monetary value of goods and services produced within a country. It’s calculated using the formula:
GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)
Where:
- C is household consumption
- I is investment
- G is government spending
- X-M is exports minus imports
It's essentially the heartbeat of the economy.
But GDP does not measure happiness, job satisfaction, hunger, education quality, or healthcare access. So yes, Nigeria’s real pain runs deeper than just GDP rankings.
⚠️ Why Did Nigeria Drop?
Let’s not sugarcoat it: mismanagement, policy inconsistencies, and a weak naira are dragging Nigeria down.
Some hard truths:
- In 2014, Nigeria's GDP was over $570 billion, topping Africa.
- By 2024, it fell below $260 billion, despite a growing population and oil reserves.
Key Reasons:
- 💸 Currency Devaluation: The naira has collapsed, trading over ₦1,400 to $1. A weaker currency reduces the USD value of our GDP.
- ⛽ Over-reliance on Oil: Oil still contributes more than 70% of export earnings, yet global demand shifts and OPEC cuts hit Nigeria hard.
- 🏭 Declining Productivity: Manufacturing and agriculture are stagnating. Imports are rising faster than exports.
- 🏛️ Policy Uncertainty: Flip-flopping FX policies, subsidy removals without proper cushioning, and poor fiscal coordination damage investor confidence.
🧨 Who’s to Blame? A Chain of Governments
It’s easy to blame today’s administration, but the seeds of economic decline were sown years ago. However:
🔴 Buhari’s Era (2015–2023)
- Two recessions in 6 years.
- Massive borrowing, yet little infrastructure return.
- Forex restrictions crippled SMEs.
- Multiple exchange rates confused investors.
🟠 Tinubu’s Government (2023–present)
- Floating the naira tanked the currency with no shock absorbers.
- Fuel subsidy removal added to inflation.
- Still no decisive plan for food production, power, or manufacturing.
Yes, Tinubu inherited a mess—but his team also stumbled on the recovery path. Nigeria needs a rescue mission, not recycled promises.
🇳🇬 What This Means for You
- Imports cost more: Everything from phones to paracetamol is expensive.
- Local businesses struggle: Raw materials are costly. FX is hard to access.
- Unemployment rises: 3 out of every 10 young Nigerians are jobless.
- Food insecurity: Nigeria ranks among countries with the highest number of undernourished people in Africa.
🧠 What Can Be Done?
- Diversify Exports: More tech, agriculture, and services—not just crude oil.
- Support SMEs: Real forex access, tax cuts, and easier credit.
- Stable FX Policy: Not the current guessing game.
- Infrastructure Spending: On things that truly boost productivity—power, roads, and education.
- Transparent Governance: Investors don’t like uncertainty—or corruption.
🤔 Final Thought
Nigeria’s GDP fall isn’t just about graphs and economic terms. It’s about families choosing between food and transport. It's about businesses folding up. It’s about a nation capable of more but sabotaged by poor leadership and weak planning.
The question isn’t just, “Who’s number one in Africa?”
The real question is, “Why is a rich country full of poor people?”
🔗 For reference:
📎 BusinessDay article on Nigeria’s GDP drop
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