By Ephraim Agbo
Let’s be honest—what’s happening between Iran and Israel right now feels like a boiling point in a pot that’s been on fire for years. Missiles are flying, diplomatic talks are stalling, and the headlines are screaming “World War.” But if we’re going to make sense of all this, we need to strip away the noise and look at what’s really driving the conflict.
So let’s walk through it—no fluff, no hype, just facts, context, and what it means for the world.
Iran Isn’t Just a Theocracy—It’s a Strategic Machine
First, let’s clear up a big misconception: Iran is often portrayed in the West as this ultra-religious theocracy where everything revolves around clerics and holy books. While religion is definitely part of the story, the reality is a lot more complex.
Iran has been running on a sophisticated, calculated playbook for over 50 years. Its leaders don’t just read religious texts—they study geopolitics. Their actions are guided by national interests, security concerns, and a deeply rooted drive to protect the country’s independence.
And where does this come from? History. Especially one major event: the 1953 coup.
How Iran’s Democracy Was Crushed in 1953
To really understand Iran today, you have to go back to the early 1950s. Iran was a constitutional monarchy at the time, meaning the Shah (Mohammad Reza Pahlavi) was the king, but real political power was meant to lie with an elected Prime Minister.
Then came Mohammad Mossadegh, a highly respected and wildly popular Prime Minister. In 1951, he nationalized Iran’s oil industry—which had long been controlled by the British through the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (now known as BP). For many Iranians, this was a bold and patriotic move. But to the British and Americans? It was a threat to their oil interests and Cold War stability.
Mossadegh pushed for democratic reforms and sought to limit the Shah’s powers. Tensions flared. Eventually, the Shah, feeling pressured and unpopular, fled the country to Rome in August 1953.
But he didn’t stay gone for long.
The CIA and British intelligence (MI6) launched Operation Ajax—a full-blown covert operation to overthrow Mossadegh and reinstall the Shah as the dominant force in Iranian politics.
They paid mobs to riot in the streets, bribed officials and military leaders, and spread anti-Mossadegh propaganda. Within days, Mossadegh was arrested and the Shah returned to Iran—this time with absolute power and foreign backing.
To many Iranians, this wasn’t just a coup. It was the death of their democracy, engineered by outsiders.
Why That Coup Still Shapes Iran’s Worldview
That 1953 coup is the root of so much of Iran’s modern-day paranoia and policy. It’s not just historical bitterness—it’s the foundation of their political identity.
The 1979 Islamic Revolution wasn’t just a religious uprising; it was a rejection of decades of foreign manipulation. The people overthrew the Shah, kicked out Western influence, and replaced it with a system they believed would never again bow to foreign powers.
That’s why today, Iran’s leadership—especially the Supreme Leader—views national independence as non-negotiable. Religion, in this context, isn’t just about faith; it’s part of a strategy to unify the country around the idea of resistance and self-reliance.
Why Iran Sees the U.S. as Its Biggest Threat
So when Iran sees the U.S. military in the Persian Gulf, sanctions from Washington, or support for Israel, it doesn’t just feel threatened—it feels haunted. The memory of 1953, and of being betrayed by foreign powers, never went away.
That’s why Iran builds missiles, supports regional proxies, and pushes back against Western dominance. From its own point of view, it’s not starting fights—it’s making sure it never gets colonized again.
From the outside, though—especially from Israel’s perspective—it looks like Iran is building a hostile, dangerous arsenal.
Why the War with Israel Escalated
Fast forward to now. We’re on Day 8 of a direct military clash between Iran and Israel. Israel bombed Iranian missile storage sites. Iran fired several missiles toward central Israel. Diplomatic talks in Geneva? Deadlocked.
Iran says there’s no point talking while it’s under attack. Western diplomats urge calm. The UK Foreign Minister even said, “Iran must not have a nuclear weapon.” But at this point, neither side looks ready to back down.
Is This Really About Nukes?
That’s what many people assume. But here’s the twist: international inspectors and U.S. intelligence have consistently said there’s no solid evidence that Iran is actively building a nuclear bomb.
Yes, Iran has enriched uranium up to 60%, and that’s concerning. But that alone doesn’t make a bomb. And under the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, Iran had agreed to the world’s most intrusive inspection regime ever—until the U.S. walked out of the deal in 2018.
So if nukes aren’t the immediate threat, what’s really going on?
Regime Change? A Bigger Agenda?
Some analysts believe the bigger goal—especially from Israel—is regime change. Destabilize Iran, weaken its institutions, and eventually dismantle the Islamic Republic.
Former Iranian nuclear negotiator Dr. Saeed Mousavian says this openly. He believes Israel, along with parts of NATO and the U.S., want to push Iran into collapse—just like Libya or Syria.
That sounds dramatic, but it’s not just speculation. Israeli officials have previously talked about supporting ethnic separatists inside Iran and fragmenting the country into smaller, less threatening regions.
What About NATO?
While this crisis unfolds, NATO is preparing for a major summit—Trump’s first since his re-election. And the tone is already changing.
Trump wants European allies to increase military spending—up to 5% of GDP, including both arms and infrastructure. That’s a big shift from diplomacy to militarization.
And so far, NATO has been largely silent on the Iran-Israel war.
Is There Still a Way Out?
Actually, yes.
If the world is serious about avoiding war, it should look back to the JCPOA nuclear deal. That agreement had real oversight, real restrictions, and real progress—until it was scrapped. Iran says it’s still open to returning to the deal, and most of the technical issues raised by the IAEA were already addressed under it.
This isn’t a puzzle that can’t be solved. It just takes political will—and a lot less arrogance.
Final Thoughts: We’ve Been Here Before
This isn’t just a war about weapons. It’s a war of memory, identity, survival—and who controls the story.
Iran remembers being betrayed. Israel sees a constant threat on its borders. The U.S. and Europe are playing a mix of referee, supporter, and strategist.
But while the powerful play these games, it’s everyday people who pay the price.
If there’s a lesson in all this, it’s that history doesn’t just repeat—it haunts. And unless we learn from it, we’re doomed to keep replaying the same tragedies over and over.
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